When I tell people about TotoCalculator 2 the first reaction is often: "If this works - why don´t you use it yourself, win every weak and become rich?"
In the first place: The application works, it does what it is written for, and I use it myself. But there is of course no guarantee to get rich, you should never believe to people that tell you something like that.
And in the second place: I do not get rich by selling licences, but that does not matter, because I do not make a living out of selling shareware (I would starve). Programming is only a hobby for me. It is much more a matter of proud not to give the program away as freeware, and every sold licence shows me that there is someone that realises the value of my work.
If you knew me personally, you would invite me for dinner or some beers in exchange for the registration code. If you like the program and do not have the time to come to Austria and to invite me, then you are welcome to buy a licence.
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TotoCalculator 2 needs some entries from the user before it can calculate the distribution of tips on the tickets. There are only a few obligatory specifications needed:
- Create a new document with the command »File - New«.
Open the options window with the command »Edit - Options...« and specify the settings for this document. It´s not necessary to check and change all options, for a start it is enough to specify the number of matches and the number of lines:
Number of Matches: Specify the number of matches that are to be forecasted on the ticket. There are, for example, normally 13 matches in Germany and in Austria and 14 matches in Italy. You can select a number from 2 to 20.
Number of Lines: Specify the number of lines you want to bet. Valid entries are numbers from 1 to 1000. The more lines you bet the longer will the calculation of the distribution last. The free unregistered version will display only the first 10 lines of the distribution.
- Chances or odds:
The command »Edit - Input...« opens a window for the input of the matches, results, chances and odds. To be able to calculate the distribution of tips, TotoCalculator 2 needs either the chances or the odds for the results 1, X and 2 per match.
Enter the chances for a home win, a draw and an away win into these cells as a percentage (but do not enter the %-character).
The sum of the three specified chances has to be exactly 100,0. To ease the input it is sufficient to enter only two values, leaving blank the third cell. TotoCalculator 2 will find the difference to 100,0 by himself. If you go bank and specify a chance of 100,0, you can leave blank the two other cells.
Enter the odds for a home win, a draw and an away win into these cells. You get odds from the book-maker of your choice, the internet might be a source as well.
It doesn´t matter on what stake your odds are based. You may for example enter the odds for 100 shillings (e.g. »220 - 260 - 300«) or for 1 shilling (e.g. »1,85 - 2,60 - 5,00«). You can even use different bases for the odds for each book-maker. The use of fractions (e.g. »1 1/2- 2 5/8 - 5«) is not supported by the application.
If both chances and odds are specified for one match TotoCalculator 2 will only use the chances.
- Start the calculation:
Now TotoCalculator 2 is able to calculate the optimal distribution of tips. Start the calculation with the command »Edit - Calculate«.
Another way to start is to open the example file offered in the help menu and to check what TotoCalculator 2 can do with it.
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Send a short e-mail with your name and your e-mail address to firstname.lastname@example.org
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Scientists from the Department of Economics and Finance of the "Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS)" in Vienna (www.ihs.ac.at) searched the optimal way to play toto. This is the abstract of Hauser/König/Krylova, "Gamblers' Rationality in Parimutuel Soccer Betting", Economics Series 87, Vienna, 2000 (the rest of the paper is written in German):
"A model for strategic behaviour in parimutuel gambles with unequal winning-probabilities is developed and applied to gambles based on soccer results. Assuming that the bookmakers' quotas reflect the true probability of each possible result of a soccer game, we are able to derive a formula for the expected payoff of a betting strategy (Tipp). Using recent (1996-99) data from the Austrian games Toto and Torwette we are able to calculate the optimal strategies for 90 Toto and Torwette rounds. It turns out that given the relatively high probability of a rollover, it is optimal to overbet favourite outcomes (as compared to the probability of their occurrence). Comparing optimal with actual gamblers' behaviour we find that overbetting is even more pronounced than predicted by the model. This means that gamblers bet too frequently on relatively probable results whereas less probable results are too infrequently chosen relatively to the optimal strategy."
What can we learn from this paper?
- It is optimal to slightly overbet the favourites.
- Gamblers tend to overbet the favourites too much with the effect that the payoff is less because it has to be shared with more winners (the line that is played most often in Austria is '111 111 111 111').
- Even an optimal strategy can not guarantee net receipts for the gambler.
Use chances or odds? I prefer the odds because bookmakers know the chances better than I do. Of course you can mix them and use odds for some matches and chances for other matches (remember that if you specify odds and chances for the same match than TotoCalculator 2 uses only the chances for this match). Maybe different strategies for normal rounds and rounds with jackpots are appropriate, e.g. overbet the favourites in jackpot rounds because sharing the jackpot is better than winning nothing at all.
The conclusion is: It is not possible to guarantee a prize, you still need much luck to win, even with TotoCalculator 2. Since no one can predict the results of the games even a "bad" distribution in the sense of the definition of the program may win a prize while a perfect distribution does not. But chances are high that it is the other way round.
In any case gambling is not science, but leisure time and shall make fun. Good luck!
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The unregistered version of TotoCalculator 2 shows a message at start with informations about the restrictions of the demo version. This message is not shown however if you uncheck "Show a message with informations about the restrictions of the demo version" in the menu "Preferences" and the order "More options".
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